Projecting the NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament 3 weeks out.

Here is one fan's take of the 2010 NCAA Men's Basketball upcoming March Madness tournament. Thanks to Mr. Dobish for your insight and thoughts.

This year continues to take strange twists and turns and we still have a lot of basketball to be played. It's been amazing to see how North Carolina's season has gone. They were once considered a conference favorite and nationally ranked team. Then, a few hiccups here and there had them as a solid at-large team in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Now, they do not even have a remote chance at the NCAA Tournament, as things stand today. Their arch-rival Duke Blue Devils seem to be the class of the conference this year.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (6) Champion - DUKE
At-large teams (5):
Bubble teams:

The Atlantic Coast conference looked to be down not long ago, but several squads have really stepped up their play as of late. Maryland and Virginia Tech, thought to be on the outside looking in not long ago, have been two of the hotter teams in the league lately.
Clemson has been hovering around the .500 mark in league play for a while now, but they're the type of team which can rise up and bite any team on any given night. Coach O's team will be a handful come tournament time, which they are expected to be in mid-March.
The rest of the teams should not feel too comfortable as of yet. Florida State and Wake Forest should be in, but that is definitely not etched in stone. In fact, Georgia Tech has been more impressive and has a slightly more attractive resume. However, we leave GT out right now, simply based on the fact they are .500 in league play. With a couple of wins down the stretch and perhaps a loss or two by either Clemson or Florida State, those squads could easily flip-flop positions. Tech also has the chance to be more dangerous than those others if they can find their way in the door.
In the A-10, we have seen a couple of teams play their way out of the at-large spots, partly due to their own substandard play lately and the rise of other teams in the power conferences.

ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE (4) Champion - RICHMOND
At-large teams (3):
Bubble teams:

Temple had been humming right along until a trip to Richmond sent them down hard. The Owls are right there and still remains the class of the conference, but we'll give the Spiders the at-large bid simply based on head-to-head. Plus, Richmond pulled off a nice upset of Florida earlier this season.
Dayton and Rhode Island looked to be locks for the tournament not long ago, but they've hit a speed bump lately. URI still has a strong RPI and likely will be in the field of 65, but they need someone like Illinois, Mississippi State or perhaps Virginia Tech to start slipping up. Plus, a team like the Rams will be closely monitoring conference tournament, praying for few upsets. Rhode Island has a fine team, but they are easily on the outside looking in at the moment. St. Louis has also played their way into at least the bubble discussion with a strong January and February.
The Big East continues to hammer on each other, but it's only making everyone stronger for the stretch run.

BIG EAST (7) Champion - SYRACUSE
At-large teams (6):
Bubble teams:

Syracuse has overtaken Villanova as our projected champion, but really this can go either way. Even Georgetown has a chance to be the top dog, no pun intended.
Louisville and Marquette have worked their way off of the bubble and into consideration as at-large teams, but we also saw a strong run by South Florida followed up by a fizzle. The Cards and Eagles have much work to be done before they're considered slam dunks for the field.
UConn has been able to pull off huge victories at times, including wins at Villanova and against Texas, but then they've seemed disinterested in games against Cincinnati and at Providence. They're a very difficult team to figure out. They have the potential to be one of those 10 or 11, last team in type teams, which everyone dogs and then ends up making it to the Sweet Sixteen. They play well against big teams and falter or lose focus against the weaklings.
The Big Ten still holds at four teams with credentials to the big dance, but Illinois could quickly join the discussion with continued big wins and some misfortunate for one of the other bubble teams.

BIG 10 (4) Champion - MICHIGAN STATE
At-large teams (3):
Bubble teams:

Michigan State and Purdue are battling it out at the top of the standings for the regular season league title. It wouldn't be shocking to see either of these teams heading up one of the brackets as a No. 1 seed. Ohio State has also played very well lately, as they have been night and day since getting F Evan Turner back from injury.
Northwestern, the only team to never make the NCAA Tournament, continues to plug along. In what amounted to a bubble play-in game over the weekend, they knocked off Minnesota in overtime to at least remain in the discussion. However, unless a few other teams really go down in flames or the Wildcats win their league tournament, Northwestern might be NIT-bound instead of being fitted for dance shoes.
The Kansas Jayhawks continue to roll along in the Big 12. It appeared at one point that KU and Texas might be battling for a No. 1 seed, but the Longhorns have long since excused themselves from that discussion.

BIG 12 (6) Champion - KANSAS
At-large teams (5):
Bubble teams:

Kansas continues to roll up win after win and they might very well be the top overall seed when tournament starts. C Cole Aldrich is playing brilliantly and this team doesn't appear to have many weaknesses.
Baylor, Kansas State and Missouri might not be known nationally, at least as much as Kansas and Texas, but they're solid clubs which should be anywhere from five to eight seeds come tournament time.
As far as Texas A&M, they appear to be in for now, but they're starting to look more like a bubble team than a sure bet right now. They're just not an exciting team. The Aggies haven't really been hurt by their own play so much, but rather by the hot streaks of several other teams looking to crash the dance. A&M is in a boat similar to that of URI from the A-10, as they'll need few conference tournament upsets in smaller leagues to avoid getting left out in the cold.

COLONIAL (2) Champion - OLD DOMINION
At-large teams (1):
Bubble teams:

At this time last month, we were trumpeting the Colonial as the next best thing. We all remember George Mason's tremendous run to the Final Four, yeah? We had them pegged as the projected champion, but they have lost four of their past five to fall two games off the pace. Mason is now in danger of missing the field and they need a lot of help.
It looked like the Colonial might put three in, now they're barely hanging onto two. Northeastern has played their way in, but perhaps this is a team which has their bubble burst in favor of a better known club from a power conference. The tournament committee might not trust these Huskies as much as those from Connecticut or Washington, let's say.
Hopefully Northeastern doesn't pay for the fact they are a little fish in a big pond, but it wouldn't be the first time that has happened to a small school, especially when humans make the decisions.

CONFERENCE USA (2) Champion - UTEP
At-large teams (2):
Bubble teams:

The Miners of Texas-El Paso have stormed to the perch in C-USA and now appear primed not only to make the tournament, but perhaps give a handful of teams fits along the way. They have just a handful of losses -- and just one in conference -- and all setbacks are against would-be NCAA or NIT teams.
Don't forget Alabama-Birmingham, either. Not long ago we were projecting the Blazers as the automatic bid earner from the conference. However, a 74-65 setback at home against UTEP drops them down a peg in our mind, although they are still likely firmly entrenched on the six to eight line.
Memphis is also playing their way into consideration. With a roster not expected to do much after coach Cal's exodus, the Tigers are storming back into contention.

MISSOURI VALLEY (2) Champion - NORTHERN IOWA
At-large teams (1):
Bubble teams:

The Panthers of UNI continue to hum right along with the Shockers of Wichita State as their wingmen. The Missouri Valley is a mid-major which often gets tremendous respect, but this year it is mostly a two-horse race with familiar face Creighton well out of it. Illinois State has played their way onto the bubble with some solid late January and early February play, but Missouri State appears to have had their hopes dashed with marginal play in the past few weeks.
However, despite the fact the MVC has solid cred, it wouldn't be entirely a surprise to see UNI as the only representative if they should march through the conference tournament and earn the automatic bid. If I were a fan of the Shockers, I wouldn't be able to breath for a week or two if they were to bow out early in the league tournament.

MOUNTAIN WEST (2) Champion - NEW MEXICO
At-large teams (1):
Bubble teams:

From the Mountain West, New Mexico appears to have overtaken Brigham Young as the conference favorites. We'll learn a great deal more on Feb. 27 when the Lobos and Cougars hook up in Provo.
BYU had flirted with the Top 10 until suffering a setback in Albuquerque back on Jan. 27. The Lobos have a Top 10 RPI and are a slam dunk for the tournament, regardless of how the regular season or conference tournament shakes down.
We had liked San Diego State and UNLV previously, but due to the strong play of bubble teams in the power conferences, the MWC is a league which could very well pay with only two representatives. It's certainly no knock from us on the play of the Aztecs and Rebels, either. They have been sufficient, but if teams like Illinois continue springing upsets over Top 10 teams and someone like UConn can earn a big win or two in their conference tournament, their entry into the field might come at the expense of a deserving San Diego State or Nevada-Las Vegas.

PAC-10 (1) Champion - CALIFORNIA
At-large teams: NONE
Bubble teams:

The Pac-10 continues to get worse, not better.
California has a strong Top 25 RPI and they lead the conference by one. If they were to go on and win the conference tournament, it's very conceivable we have just one team in. Right now, that's what we're going with. A lot of America will be watching this tournament very closely, as someone's bubble bursts if/when Cal bows out.
Arizona State looks good on the surface with an 18-8 record through Feb. 20, but a closer look shows an RPI of just 65 and no real signature wins to speak of. They're a borderline 11-12 seed at best, more likely to end up in the NIT with several teams looking just like them. Washington also has an outside chance of making the field of 65, but they go hot and cold too often. If they're to have any chance, it likely has to be running the table in the league tournament. USC is ineligible, or they would also be a bubble team.

SOUTHEASTERN (4) Champion - KENTUCKY
At-large teams (3):
Bubble teams:

Kentucky continues to roll along and they might give the SEC a No. 1 seed. However, the league doesn't have a whole lot of other promise, as prospects continue to suffer.
Tennessee and Vanderbilt appear to be firmly entrenched as tournament teams. Until a week ago or so, Mississippi and Mississippi State also didn't look like they had any worries. The Bulldogs fought the No. 3 Wildcats to the end, but lost in overtime. They remain just one game out in the SEC West and are still the team to beat on that side of the league.
Arkansas sits squarely on the bubble, not much because of their overall record, but they're solid league mark to lead the SEC West.
Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina also join the Razorbacks on the bubble. The Gators have been hard to figure this year, winning against Michigan State, but losing to Richmond and South Alabama. They'll have plenty of time to wow the committee when they face Tennessee, Mississippi, Vanderbilt and Kentucky in four of the final five regular season games. However, a dangerous trip to Georgia on Feb. 27 really could seal their fate, as a loss would be severely detrimental. South Carolina needs a lot of help. Another loss and they're likely off of the bubble in the negative way.

WEST COAST (2) Champion - GONZAGA
At-large teams (1):
Bubble teams:

The West Coast conference continues to sail right along as the most competitive basketball league in the Pacific Time Zone. The Gonzaga Bulldogs always get plenty of props for being the little engine that could. They have brought fame and fortune not only to Spokane, but to the entire WCC as well. It's a wonder that someone like the Mountain West or WAC haven't come calling to see if the Zags are interested in stepping up.
St. Mary's looked to be in, but they're chances are flagging. They lost at Gonzaga late last week and suffered an overtime loss in Portland last Saturday. The Gaels are going to have to turn it around in a hurry if they wish to receive a dance card. 21 wins looks impressive at the outset, but an RPI of 46 is just so-so when compared to someone like Rhode Island.
Portland has really put it together after a difficult December and early January. Remember, Portland beat Oregon, UCLA and Minnesota earlier this year. Still, with an RPI of 78 and no remaining regular season games against Gonzaga, the Pilots likely are NIT-bound unless they can rise up in the league tournament.

Brackets are only three weeks away and this might help you start researching your picks. Let the Madness begin!


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